New proposals to ease our great mortgage meltdown keep rolling in. First
the Treasury Department urged the creation of a new fund that would buy
risky mortgage bonds as a tactic to hide what those bonds were really worth.
(Not much.) Then the idea was to use Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy the
risky loans, even if it was clear that U.S. taxpayers would eventually be
stuck with the bill. But that plan went south after Fannie suffered a new
accounting scandal, and Freddie's existing loan losses shot up more than
expected.
Now, just unveiled Thursday, comes the "freeze," the brainchild of
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. It sounds good: For five years, mortgage
lenders will freeze interest rates on a limited number of "teaser" subprime
loans. Other homeowners facing foreclosure will be offered assistance from
the Federal Housing Administration.
But unfortunately, the "freeze" is just another fraud - and like the
other bailout proposals, it has nothing to do with U.S. house prices, with
"working families," keeping people in their homes or any of that nonsense.
The sole goal of the freeze is to prevent owners of mortgage-backed
securities, many of them foreigners, from suing U.S. banks and forcing them
to buy back worthless mortgage securities at face value - right now almost
10 times their market worth.
The ticking time bomb in the U.S. banking system is not resetting
subprime mortgage rates. The real problem is the contractual ability of
investors in mortgage bonds to require banks to buy back the loans at face
value if there was fraud in the origination process.
And, to be sure, fraud is everywhere. It's in the loan application
documents, and it's in the appraisals. There are e-mails and memos floating
around showing that many people in banks, investment banks and appraisal
companies - all the way up to senior management - knew about it.
I can hear the hum of shredders working overtime, and maybe that is the
new "hot" industry to invest in. There are lots of people who would like to
muzzle subpoena-happy New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to buy time and
make this all go away. Cuomo is just inches from getting what he needs to
start putting a lot of people in prison. I bet some people are trying right
now to make him an offer "he can't refuse."
Despite Thursday's ballyhooed new deal with mortgage lenders, does anyone
really think that it can ultimately stop fraud lawsuits by mortgage bond
investors, many of them spread out across the globe?
The catastrophic consequences of bond investors forcing originators to
buy back loans at face value are beyond the current media discussion. The
loans at issue dwarf the capital available at the largest U.S. banks
combined, and investor lawsuits would raise stunning liability sufficient to
cause even the largest U.S. banks to fail, resulting in massive
taxpayer-funded bailouts of Fannie and Freddie, and even FDIC.
The problem isn't just subprime loans. It is the entire mortgage market.
As home prices fall, defaults will rise sharply - period. And so will the
patience of mortgage bondholders. Different classes of mortgage bonds from
various risk pools are owned by different central banks, funds, pensions and
investors all over the world. Even your pension or 401(k) might have some of
these bonds in it.
Perhaps some U.S. government department can make veiled threats to
foreign countries to suggest they will suffer unpleasant consequences if
their largest holders (central banks and investment funds) don't go along
with the plan, but how could it be possible to strong-arm everyone?
What would be prudent and logical is for the banks that sold this toxic
waste to buy it back and for a lot of people to go to prison. If they knew
about the fraud, they should have to buy the bonds back. The time to look
into this is before the shredders have worked their magic - not five years
from now.
Those selling the "freeze" have suggested that mortgage-backed securities
investors will benefit because they lose more with rising foreclosures. But
with fast-depreciating collateral, the last thing investors in mortgage
bonds ought to do is put off foreclosures. Rate freezes are at best a tool
for delaying the inevitable foreclosures when even the most optimistic
forecasters expect home prices to fall. In October, Goldman Sachs issued a
report forecasting an incredible 35 to 40 percent drop in California home
prices in the coming few years. To minimize losses, a mortgage bondholder
would obviously be better off foreclosing on a home before prices plunge.
The goal of the freeze may be to delay bond investors from suing by
putting off the big foreclosure wave for several years. But it may also be
to stop bond investors from suing. If the investors agreed to loan
modifications with the "real" wage and asset information from refinancing
borrowers, mortgage originators and bundlers would have an excuse once the
foreclosure occurred. They could say, "Fraud? What fraud?! You knew the
borrower's real income and asset information later when he refinanced!"
The key is to refinance borrowers whose current loans involved fraud in
the origination process. And I assure you it was a minority of borrowers
whose loans didn't involve fraud.
The government is trying to accomplish wide-scale refinancing by tricking
bond investors, or by tricking U.S. taxpayers. Guess who will foot the bill
now that the FHA is entering the fray?
Ultimately, the people in these secret Paulson meetings were probably
less worried about saving the mortgage market than with saving themselves.
Some might be looking at prison time.
As chief of Goldman Sachs, Paulson was involved, to degrees as yet
unrevealed, in the mortgage securitization process during the halcyon days
of mortgage fraud from 2004 to 2006.
Paulson became the U.S. Treasury secretary on July 10, 2006, after the
extent of the debacle was coming into focus for those in the know. Goldman
Sachs achieved recent accolades in the markets for having bet heavily
against the housing market, while Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, Bear Sterns,
Merrill Lynch and others got hammered for failing to time the end of the
credit bubble.
Goldman Sachs is the only major investment bank in the United States that
has emerged as yet unscathed from this debacle. The success of its strategy
must have resulted from fairly substantial bets against housing, mortgage
banking and related industries, which also means that Goldman Sachs saw this
coming at the same time they were bundling and selling these loans.
If a mortgage bond investor sues Goldman Sachs to force the institution
to buy back loans, could Paulson be forced to testify as to whether Goldman
Sachs knew or had reason to know about fraud in the origination process of
the loans it was bundling?
It is truly amazing that right now everyone in the country is deferring
to Paulson and the heads of Countrywide, JPMorgan, Bank of America and
others as the best group to work out a solution to this problem. No one is
talking about the fact that these people created the problem and profited to
the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars from it.
I suspect that such a group first sat down and tried to figure out how to
protect their financial interests and avoid criminal liability. And then
when they agreed on the plan, they decided to sell it as "helping working
families stay in their homes." That's why these meetings were secret, and
reporters and the public weren't invited.
The next time that Paulson is before the Senate Finance Committee,
instead of asking, "How much money do you think we should give your banking
buddies?" I'd like to see New York Sen. Chuck Schumer ask him what he knew
about this staggering fraud at the time he was chief of Goldman Sachs.
The Goldman report in October suggests that rampant investor demand is to
blame for origination fraud - even though these investors were misled by
high credit ratings from bond rating agencies being paid billions by the
U.S. investment banks, like Goldman, that were selling the bundled
mortgages.
This logic is like saying shoppers seeking bargain-priced soup encourage
the grocery store owner to steal it. I mean, we're talking about criminal
fraud here. We are on the cusp of a mammoth financial crisis, and the
Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury are trying to limit the liability of
their banking friends under the guise of trying to help borrowers. At stake
is nothing short of the continued existence of the U.S. banking system.
Sean Olender is a San Mateo attorney. Contact us at
insight@sfchronicle.com.